Kód: 05190202

Superforecasting

Name: Superforecasting
Brand: Random House Books
SKU: 05190202
Availability: OutOfStock

Autor Philip Tetlock

Jazyk: Angličtina
Vazba: Brožovaná
Počet stran: 320
Nakladatelství: Random House Books, 2015
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Anotace knihy

When it comes to making predictions about the future, the average expert is about as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee. This was the much-publicised conclusion of the largest and most comprehensive analysis of expert predictions ever undertaken, completed by Philip Tetlock in 2005 after almost twenty years' work. In the course of his research, Tetlock considered 27,450 forecasts made by hundreds of experts who make a career out of forecasting political or economic events. The results were damning. Not only was the average success rate of the experts roughly equivalent to that of someone making random guesses, but Tetlock discovered that the more 'pre-eminent' the experts were, the less accurate their predictions tended to be. In Seeing Further, Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner show that our desire for meaningful predictions about the future is far from futile, however. Based on an ongoing, multi-million dollar 'forecasting tournament', the authors offer compelling evidence for ways in which we are able to improve our foresight and make more accurate predictions. Using the approach they term as the 'fox' style of thinking, Tetlock and Gardner show how a few simple training exercises can improve the average person's ability to predict the future by a staggering 20 per cent. At the end of the first year of the forecasting tournament, the 'Good Judgement' team using these exercises was beating all other teams by 30 to 60 per cent. The importance of accurate forecasting cannot be underestimated. It can spell the difference between prosperity and penury, progress and collapse, even peace and war. This is a crucial and enlightening exploration of a topic which will never cease to be relevant.